Refined Ambitions – how Australia can become a low carbon liquid fuel powerhouse
Milestone report points to $36 billion market opportunity to cut our reliance on imported fuels while also cutting our carbon footprint
Australia consumes more than 56 billion litres of liquid fossil fuels each year, creating as much as 32 per cent of national emissions. While developing a competitive low carbon liquid fuel industry is central to the achievement of our net zero emissions ambitions, it also offers enormous economic and industry benefits.
Refined Ambitions: Exploring Australia’s low carbon liquid fuel potential
July 2025
Refined Ambitions: Exploring Australia’s low carbon liquid fuel potential, a landmark report from the CEFC and Deloitte, shows how Australia can develop a $36 billion industry as part of our net zero future
View the summary Read the full reportAustralia has all the ingredients to be a clean fuel superpower – abundant feedstocks, world-class research, and growing demand. Policy accelerators, including mandates, certification schemes and offsets, are key components to assist the industry reach scale. The first movers will reap the rewards of this global market.Rupert MaloneyExecutive Director, CEFC
about the industry
Liquid fuel use accounts for 32 per cent of Australia’s national emissions, with the road transport sector being the biggest fuel user, followed by mining and aviation combined.
A significant share of Australia’s liquid fuel demand is hard to electrify. The development of an Australian low carbon liquid fuel (LCLF) industry could deliver decarbonisation in these sectors.
Refined Ambitions: Exploring Australia’s low carbon liquid fuel has found:
- A $36 billion market opportunity by 2050: A domestic LCLF sector could contribute significantly to Australia’s economic growth and clean energy exports.
- 230 million tonnes CO₂-e savings: Cumulative abatement over the next 25 years, equivalent to nearly half of Australia’s annual emissions.
- Fuel security risk: 80 per cent of Australia’s liquid fuel is imported, costing $50.7 billion in 2023 - exposing the nation to supply chain shocks.
- Untapped potential: Australia exports $3.9 billion in LCLF feedstocks (e.g., canola, tallow) but lacks local refining capacity to realise full value.
- Persistent demand: Even with rapid electrification, large quantities of liquid fuel could still be needed by 2050.
About the report
Building a competitive clean fuels industry
Australia can build a competitive clean fuels industry and lead the region in climate-era innovation, with the right market signals and collaboration. Investment commitments are needed this decade to avoid missing the opportunity.
Refined Ambitions: Exploring Australia’s low carbon liquid fuel potential provides a roadmap with seven key steps to help scale Australia’s LCLF industry:
- Improve market access (e.g., trade relationships)
- De-risk investments (e.g., concessional finance to de-risk private capital)
- Reduce transaction challenges (e.g., standardised contract terms)
- Consider credible demand signals (e.g., Sustainable aviation fuel and freight fuel blending mandates)
- More transparent data on demand, supply and feedstocks
- Leverage innovation to reduce costs and support for advanced fuel technologies (e.g., hydrogen-based e-fuels)
- Better coordination and alignment across the value chain (e.g., from feedstock supplier to fuel producer to end user)
